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BN may regain S'gor, Kedah, say dons

Barisan Nasional has the edge to win the 13th general election and wresting at least two states from the opposition, according to a study carried out by several lecturers.

Associate professor Fuad Mohd Jali from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said the BN was leading if a study conducted on 1,400 respondents in Kedah and Selangor from March to May was anything to go by.

"In Selangor, the respondents banked their hope on the BN while in Kedah the situation is 50-50, but it may change," he said at a roundtable organised by the National Council of Professors in Kuala Lumpur today.

Fuad, who is UKM School of Social, Development and Environment chairman, said the 13th GE would be the acid test of whether the BN had restored its support or whether the opposition would maintain its stranglehold in four states. 

On the whole, he said 69.6 percent of the respondents indicated that the BN would win the 13th GE in which 37.5 per cent felt it would a landslide victory while 32.1 percent by a simple majority. 

For the Selangor state election, he said 54.1 per cent of the respondents went for the BN, 14.4 percent (PAS), three per cent (PKR) and the rest (not sure), while at the parliamentary level, 57 per cent wanted the BN, 20.6 per cent (opposition) and 22.4 per cent (not sure).

Fuad said based the results deduced from simulation studies carried out in Selangor based on the 11th and 12th GEs, the present voter profile and the BN reputation indicated that the BN would win 40 state seats.

In Kedah, 50.7 per cent of the respondents opted for PAS for the state seats, 49.3 per cent (BN) while the rest (not sure), he said.

'Magnet module' approach

He said the leadership and popularity of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak would be a major contributing factor that would give the BN the edge to win the 13th GE. 

"An average of 87.4 per cent of respondents aged between 21 and 60 supported Najib. 

Seventy-six percent said Najib portrays very good image compared to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat," said Fuad. 

He said while the BN lost the support of young people in 2008, Najib had turned the tide against the opposition by garnering their support through the 'magnet module' approach by implementing political transformation and engaging them through social networking. 

Associate professor Rohana Yusof from Universiti Utara Malaysia, who conducted a study on 10,800 respondents in Kedah from November 2011 until February this year, said PAS was losing its ground in Kedah as it had failed to fulfil the promises made in the last general election.

"About 54 per cent of respondents stated that the PAS-led government should not be maintained, while 58 per cent felt that the BN should continue to be the government at the federal level," she said.

She said the people of Kedah were more receptive to federal government's policies against that of the state, and as such the BN should be given the mandate in Kedah. 

Rohana said the people also felt that they needed a capable menteri besar who is a trouble-shooter, accessible to the people and more willing to go down to the grassroots to meet the people.

"This gives an impression that Kedah Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak does not live up to their expectations.

"Largely, the respondents wanted MP for Jerlun Mukhriz Mahathir to be the next MB if the BN wrested the state from PAS," said Rohana.